Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 42.503101 46.563696 51.067566 56.479117 62.867022 70.248162 79.543987
2025-02-23 36.235955 41.468209 47.711578 55.869740 66.504181 80.295440 100.278591
2025-03-02 32.292392 37.940207 44.990436 54.718231 68.293329 87.459677 118.547485
2025-03-09 29.618807 35.491722 43.079238 54.007312 70.136535 94.651445 138.838232
2025-03-16 27.064486 32.870943 40.553139 51.959850 69.502246 97.715188 153.150537
2025-03-23 26.238638 32.417311 40.845231 53.870629 75.052858 111.968480 194.735448
2025-03-30 24.862142 31.072218 39.720743 53.465453 76.733833 119.816175 227.404429
2025-04-06 23.567918 29.731678 38.463123 52.666632 77.552424 126.175039 260.733637
2025-04-13 22.126169 28.082431 36.614006 50.707324 75.977339 127.224964 280.174365
2025-04-20 21.772101 27.962937 37.026685 52.467655 81.498729 145.241312 371.851097
2025-04-27 21.354877 27.714690 37.208331 53.839044 86.521130 164.102000 499.036967
2025-05-04 20.843602 27.288826 37.069119 54.618000 90.479926 182.005640 667.603917
2025-05-11 20.088134 26.484869 36.320980 54.320307 92.329298 195.697108 870.612773
2025-05-18 19.330812 25.642017 35.459420 53.739278 93.499891 208.278453 1146.968465
2025-05-25 18.545184 24.713239 34.392459 52.656576 93.310281 216.461366 1459.537218
2025-06-01 17.898279 23.968130 33.582891 51.987757 94.003686 228.425175 2025.042466
2025-06-08 17.076725 22.912948 32.192600 50.059771 91.273714 226.196396 2292.101773
2025-06-15 16.951760 22.951012 32.657109 51.859131 98.388760 269.130561 7029.627697
2025-06-22 16.476430 22.405367 32.079607 51.477773 99.674229 287.741133 19464.472170
2025-06-29 15.973893 21.794900 31.355237 50.725609 99.808536 301.166276 115827.002860
2025-07-06 15.331935 20.935902 30.154288 48.879026 96.554470 294.595947 321181.075783
2025-07-13 15.256659 20.995808 30.581567 50.538191 103.833241 355.934759 NaN
2025-07-20 15.125715 20.956743 30.826639 51.829407 110.421412 425.903461 NaN